Image credit: Illustration by iGamingNews Editorial Desk. Not a depiction of Entain premises or personnel.
Entain kept its FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance on 28 September but now expects results at the lower end of both ranges, because Brazil's online betting ban is assumed to stay in force for the rest of 2026.
The guidance covers Group Underlying EBITDA of £910m to £960m and an Online Underlying EBITDA margin of 21% to 22%. Entain had expected Brazil to make up about 5% of its Online NGR in FY26, with a modest EBITDA contribution. Its Brazil NGR was already down 25% on a constant-currency basis in the first half.
The trigger is provisional measure 1.394 of 25 September 2026, published in an extra edition of the Diário Oficial da União. Its ementa prohibits the operation, offer, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting lotteries across Brazil. As a provisional measure, it lapses unless Congress converts it into law. Brazilian law-firm briefings on the measure say it also bars new deposits into operators' transactional accounts from the day of publication. Decree 13.128 of 28 September, issued three days later, regulates one of its articles, according to the Senate's legislative record.
Entain's update came three days after the measure was published, in the same week as the decree.
Entain's statement, as reported by gaming.net, said the company was disappointed that the measure came without industry consultation. The announcement named no spokesperson, so no individual executive is quoted here.
Small share, bottom-of-range outcome
Entain's own framing explains the shape of the cut. Brazil was a small share of Online NGR, and the company says its diversified portfolio supports the range, yet it has moved the outlook to the bottom of both ranges. The guidance assumes the ban holds through 2026, so if Congress or the courts reverse the measure, that reversal is not yet reflected in the numbers.
Brazil's NGR was already shrinking, down 25% in the first half, so the ban removes a contracting part of the business rather than a growing one. The ban itself is the cause of the guidance change, and the company's assumption is the reference point for anyone modelling its 2026 result against the regulated Brazilian market as it stood before the measure.
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