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# Catena Media Says It Will Miss 2026 Growth Target
- URL: https://www.igamingnews.biz/catena-media-growth-target-miss/
- Published: 2026-10-19T09:10:53.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-19T09:12:57.000Z
- Description: Catena Media no longer expects to reach its 2026 double-digit growth target after preliminary Q3 revenue fell 29% to EUR 8.3m on weaker search traffic.
- Author: iGamingNews Editorial Desk
- Tags: Affiliate Industry, Catena Media, Search, Cpa

**Catena Media no longer expects to reach its 2026 double-digit organic growth target, after preliminary third-quarter revenue fell 29% to EUR 8.3m and the group flagged a non-cash impairment of EUR 30m to EUR 35m.**

The affiliate blamed search. In a preliminary release dated 16 October, the company said generative search and lower rankings are cutting new traffic across its affiliate sites, and that summer marketing cuts at operators added to the drop. It also said more than 90% of new customers come through cost-per-acquisition deals, which leaves little recurring revenue to absorb a traffic shock.

**The preliminary Q3 numbers:**

- **Revenue:** EUR 8.3m, down from EUR 11.6m a year earlier.
- **Adjusted EBITDA:** EUR 0.7m, against EUR 2.9m. The figure includes a EUR 0.7m reversal of 2026 employee bonus accruals.
- **Nine-month revenue:** EUR 30.1m, against EUR 31.0m.
- **Nine-month adjusted EBITDA:** EUR 4.6m, against EUR 5.2m.
- **Impairment:** a non-cash charge of EUR 30m to EUR 35m on intangible assets, booked in Q3 under IAS 36.

All Q3 figures are preliminary and unaudited. The full interim report is due on 10 November at 17:35 CET.

## The target is gone, but no new number replaces it

The release does not give a revised forecast. It says the group "no longer expects to reach" its target of double-digit organic growth in group revenue and adjusted EBITDA for 2026\. That is a retreat from a stated goal without a replacement figure, so investors have nothing new to price until the November report.

The wording matters. Some outlets described the move as a guidance cut, others as a withdrawal of the target. The company's own sentence is narrower than either.

## Search is the stated cause, and it was already visible in August

Catena's second-quarter results, reported in August, already showed the squeeze. Revenue fell 1% and adjusted EBITDA margin nearly halved to 13%, as weak organic search pushed the company toward a marketplace model (\[\[catena-media-search-headwinds-marketplace-pivot\]\]). The Q3 release goes further. It attributes the drop to AI-assisted personalised search and to search engines promoting lower-relevance content, which together reduce the clicks that affiliates depend on.

The same pattern runs across the sector. Google's AI summaries have already been described as eroding the affiliate betting model (\[\[google-ai-overviews-affiliate-seo-collapse\]\]).

## The CPA exposure is the real risk

A CPA model pays for each new depositing player. When traffic falls, the affiliate loses that acquisition flow and has no subscription-like base to fall back on. Catena's own disclosure, that more than 90% of new customers come through CPA deals, is the number that explains the scale of the miss.

The industry has been moving from pure CPA toward revenue share (\[\[igaming-cpa-to-revenue-share-shift\]\]). Catena's figures show how much of its model still rests on CPA, and how quickly a search shock can reach revenue.

## What to watch

The EUR 30m to EUR 35m impairment is preliminary and tied to the group's intangible assets. The 10 November report will show whether the write-down is a one-off reset or the first of several, and whether management gives a new target at all.