> ## Content Index
> Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.igamingnews.biz/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further.

# Prediction Markets Are Reviving Affiliate CPA Deals
- URL: https://www.igamingnews.biz/better-collective-prediction-market-cpa/
- Published: 2026-08-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-26T13:53:21.000Z
- Description: Better Collective's North American CPA affiliate revenue rose 50% to 5 million euros in Q2 2026, driven by prediction market operators paying per signup.
- Author: iGamingNews Editorial Desk
- Tags: Affiliate Industry, Growth Marketing

*Image credit: Source: Better Collective A/S Q2 2026 interim report, published August 20, 2026.*

**Better Collective's North American affiliate CPA revenue jumped 50% to 5 million euros in the second quarter of 2026, and the company says the growth came almost entirely from prediction market operators paying per signup instead of per lifetime customer value.** The Danish affiliate group disclosed the figure in its Q2 2026 interim report on August 20, with an earnings call the following day.

"North American CPA revenue increased by 50% to EUR 5 million, primarily driven by strong momentum within prediction markets," co-chief executive Jesper Søgaard told analysts. Better Collective entered the category in March 2026, building dedicated editorial hubs on VegasInsider and Action Network. "We started the year with one player being active there, and then during the second quarter we got one more into the market," Søgaard said.

The affiliate industry spent the past several years pushing operators away from CPA, the flat fee paid for every new depositing customer regardless of how much that customer eventually spends, and toward revenue share, where the affiliate earns a cut of what the player loses over time. Revenue share aligns the affiliate's incentive with the operator's long-term economics and better survives regulatory scrutiny of aggressive acquisition marketing. Better Collective's own group-wide numbers show that shift holding: revenue share income reached 44 million euros in the quarter, up 5%, now 82% of recurring revenue, with 70% of new depositing customers arriving through revenue-share deals.

Prediction market operators are paying the opposite way, and for an obvious reason. Kalshi and Polymarket are fighting for market share against each other and against incumbent sportsbooks, in a category still working out its regulatory footing state by state. A flat fee per signup rewards exactly the volume land grab a young, capital-backed challenger wants to run, the same logic that drove CPA deals in sports betting's own early legalization years before operators had enough player data to price revenue share confidently.

Better Collective's North America segment as a whole is turning that volume into margin. The region's EBITDA margin improved from 5% to 25% year over year, even as the UK's [Remote Gaming Duty increase from 21% to 40%](https://www.igamingnews.biz/uk-remote-gaming-duty-40-percent/) cost the group roughly 2 million euros and regulatory changes in Brazil cost a further 2 million. FIFA World Cup betting activity added its own lift, with new depositing customers up 24% and deposit values at record highs. Søgaard flagged the next test directly: "We know for U.S. sports, the start of the NFL is a major milestone. We are really excited about the competition that the market will have leading up to the start of the NFL."

Two prediction market partners generating 5 million euros in one region in one quarter is a small base next to Better Collective's 44 million euros of revenue-share income, and a smaller one still against the group's total quarterly revenue of 89.1 million euros, up 9%, with EBITDA before special items of 27 million euros, up 20%, at a 30% margin. But it is a live counter-example to the industry's own [CPA-to-revenue-share consensus](https://www.igamingnews.biz/igaming-cpa-to-revenue-share-shift/), arriving from the one corner of the market still young enough to pay for volume the old way. Whether that spending holds once [prediction markets](https://www.igamingnews.biz/prediction-markets-sports-betting-rival/) settle into their own regulatory steady state, or reverts to revenue share like every operator before them, is the number worth tracking through the NFL season.

The rest of the affiliate sector is watching the same two counterparties. Catena Media, Gambling.com Group's Grandstand and Raketech have all built their own sports betting content businesses on the assumption that revenue share is where the margin lives long term, after years of moving their own deal books in that direction. If Kalshi and Polymarket keep paying CPA at a premium while they fight for share, rival affiliates have every incentive to chase the same deals now rather than wait for the category to mature into revenue share on its own terms, the way every prior betting vertical eventually did. That is exactly the dynamic regulators cracked down on the first time around: CPA pricing rewards raw signup volume over customer quality, the same complaint that pushed sportsbooks toward revenue share and toward tighter affiliate-marketing rules in the UK and elsewhere. A prediction market operator without a state gambling license to defend has less reason to care.

## A new payer, an old playbook

Better Collective didn't change its pitch to win this money. Prediction markets showed up wanting to buy the thing sportsbooks stopped wanting to sell, and the affiliate happened to already have the inventory.

**Related:** [Affiliate Commission Models Are Shifting From CPA to Revenue Share](https://www.igamingnews.biz/igaming-cpa-to-revenue-share-shift/) | [Better Collective Trades Programmatic Spend for Sponsorship](https://www.igamingnews.biz/better-collective-programmatic-to-sponsorship-shift/) | [Prediction Markets Are Becoming Sportsbooks' Real Rival](https://www.igamingnews.biz/prediction-markets-sports-betting-rival/)